If you’re on a hike, and you spot a bear in the distance, it’s not necessary to get closer to determine whether this particular bear is likely to be dangerous. The easy question – Should I avoid bears? – is the right question.

Nevertheless, substituting a simple question for a more complex one always involves leaving out some facts and considerations, and this is where trouble can start.

In these 5-minute episodes of The Successful Strategist, I discuss why we're often blind to the threat of easy questions – and blind to our blindness – and what to do about it.

• The Threat of Easy Questions (S3:E5)

• Real Strategy Development (S1:E16)

• The Ten-fold Question (S2:E12)

• Give Me Options (S2:E23)

Peter Thiel on asking questions

If you don’t have good answers to the questions every business must answer, you will run into lots of “bad luck,” and your organization will fail.

Stress Test Your Strategy Before Going All-In

Most organizations find it difficult to ask hard questions about their strategy. It’s no suprise that across industries and sectors, fewer than 15 percent of organizations achieve what they hoped their strategic plans would allow them to do. Half of organziations actually damage themselves trying to implement their plans.

My Strategy Audit provides a prompt, independent, practical, and affordable evaluation of your strategic plan.

The first five organizations that sign up for a Strategy Audit before August 31 will receive a 20% discount.

Email me at muncy@prosperallc.com for more information.

Learn more about a Strategy Audit

Those who are invested in a strategic plan are not in a good position to evaluate it. Confirmation bias and a reluctance to question sunk costs leave a large majority of executives unaware of flaws or unwilling to express doubts.

A Strategy Audit will allow your organization – for-profit or non-profit – to candidly discuss and rapidly improve your strategic plan, vastly reducing your risk of wasted resources, internal conflict, damage to relationships with investors or donors, and unsustainable service to customers or beneficiaries.

Years ago, I consulted with an organization that had developed a genuinely outstanding digital product.

But the organization had spent all its money and more in less than a year with very little to show for it.

When I read the business plan, it was clear why this had happened: The rhetoric was inspiring, but I was amazed at how utterly unrealistic it was – and I’ve read my share of unrealistic plans over the last 25 years.

The story of what they would accomplish sounded so good that they didn’t ask how – or how likely – they were to acquire the resources and build the capabilities necessary to succeed.

In these 5-minute episodes of The Successful Strategist, I discuss the hidden but deadly danger of mistaking plausibility for probability. Follow the links below to the individual episodes, and subscribe to the podcast on any major app.

• The Threat of Storytelling (S3:E4)

• Miracles and Bullseyes (S2:E5)

• Fit, the Fourth Element of Strategy (S1:E14)

Daniel Kahneman on storytelling

If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.

Strategy Audit – 20% off if you’re one of the first FIVE

Don’t sell yourself on a story. Across industries and sectors, fewer than 15 percent of organizations achieve what they hoped their strategic plans would allow them to do. Half of organziations actually damage themselves trying to implement their plans.

My Strategy Audit provides a prompt, independent, practical, and affordable evaluation of your strategic plan.

The first five organizations that sign up for a Strategy Audit before August 31 will receive a 20% discount.

Email me at muncy@prosperallc.com for more information.

Learn more about a Strategy Audit

Those who are invested in a strategic plan are not in a good position to evaluate it. Confirmation bias and a reluctance to question sunk costs leave a large majority of executives unaware of flaws or unwilling to express doubts.

A Strategy Audit will allow your organization – for-profit or non-profit – to candidly discuss and rapidly improve your strategic plan, vastly reducing your risk of wasted resources, internal conflict, damage to relationships with investors or donors, and unsustainable service to customers or beneficiaries.

We tend to believe growth is always good – the faster the better. There must be something wrong with organizations that aren’t growing.

This is as true in the nonprofit sector as it is for commerical businesses. Charity rating services downgrade nonprofits that don’t show consistent growth. It’s not unusual for donors to express doubts about nonprofits that don’t regularly add “something new.”

But growth is not the same as value. Privileging growth substitutes a question that’s easy to answer – whether your income is bigger this year – for one that’s harder to answer – whether your organization is better.

Growth as a measure of progress doesn’t tell you what it cost to achieve that growth. If growth costs more than it returns to the organization, you’ve lost money or damaged yourself in some other way.

Yet even if your growth is profitable, in the sense that you finish with more than you started with, it may still not have been worth it.

In these 5-minute episodes of The Successful Strategist, I discuss why the significance of “growth” is often less obvious than we like to think. Follow the links below to the individual episodes, and subscribe on any major podcast app.

• The Threat of Growth (S3:E3)

• The Fit Test (S2:E10)

• The Peril of Opportunity Cost (S1:E3)

David Packard on growth

More businesses die of indigestion than starvation.

How to Reduce Your Risk

Across industries and sectors, and over a long period of time, less than 15 percent of organizations achieve what they hoped their strategic plans would allow them to do. Half of organziations actually damage themselves trying to implement their plans.

How can this possibly happen?

Those who are invested in a strategic plan are not in a good position to evaluate it. Confirmation bias and a reluctance to question sunk costs leave a large majority of executives unaware of flaws or unwilling to express doubts.

My Strategy Audit provides a prompt, independent, practical, and affordable evaluation of your strategic plan.

A Strategy Audit will allow your organization – for-profit or non-profit – to candidly discuss and rapidly improve your strategic plan, vastly reducing your risk of wasted resources, internal conflict, damage to relationships with investors or donors, and unsustainable service to customers or beneficiaries.

Email me at muncy@prosperallc.com, or click here, for more information.

The problem is that organizations often follow practices and rules without really understanding why they’re following them, beyond popularity or appearance of success.

That’s not to say we shouldn’t take the standards of our industry or field seriously, or that we can’t make progress by integrating their best practices into our organization’s work.

Yet as I discovered the hard way early in my career, efficiency and imitation, even of the best, only get us so far. We won’t succeed simply by optimizing the status quo.

In these 5-minute episodes of The Successful Strategist, I explore why best practices can – and eventually will – “lead to dead ends,” as Peter Thiel warns. Follow the links to the individual episdoes, and subscribe on any major podcast app.

• The Threat of Best Practices (S3:E2)

• Operational Effectiveness Is Not Strategy (S1:E19)

• A Strength Is Not an Advantage (S1:E5)

Peter Thiel on best practices

Today's best practices lead to dead ends; the best paths are new and untried.

Organizations Need Strategy Audits

A large majority of strategic plans at best simply repeat best practices, ensuring that they’re neither “strategic” nor even really “plans.”

My 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 is for those who want 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘁, 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘀.

A 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 will allow your organization – for-profit or non-profit – to candidly discuss and rapidly improve your strategic plan, vastly reducing your risk of wasted resources, internal conflict, damage to relationships with investors or donors, and unsustainable service to customers or beneficiaries.

Email me at muncy@prosperallc.com, or click here, for more information.

In a recent interview (players above and below), I had a great opportunity to summarize my thinking on strategy. Thanks to the excellent host, Tim Meinhardt, I was able to cover a wide range of topics in a short time:

• How working for startups is a crucible for learning about strategy;

• The most misunderstood aspects of strategy development;

• Why you shouldn’t try to be the best;

• Good strategy is the same whether you're a commercial business or a nonprofit;

• Most strategic plans are stories – not explanations – of how an organization can succeed;

• Why even the best data analysis isn't enough for good strategy;

• The peril of confusing plausibility with probability;

• Why having to revise your strategy isn’t sign of failure;

• The major causes of implementation problems;

• Why most executives wouldn’t plan their vacations the way they plan for the future of their organizations;

• What George Orwell might have said about the rules for good strategy.

Why Organizations Need a Strategy Audit

A large majority of strategic plans are produced by consensus, ensuring that they’re neither “strategic” nor even really “plans.”

My 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 is for those who want 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘁, 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘀.

The audit includes written assessment of your organization’s strategic plan and relevant financial documents, and a 90-minute video or telephone consultation with up to seven members of your staff and board.

A 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 will allow your organization – for-profit or non-profit – to candidly discuss and rapidly improve your strategic plan, vastly reducing your risk of wasted resources, internal conflict, damage to relationships with investors or donors, and unsustainable service to customers or beneficiaries.

To learn more, click on the image below or schedule a free 15-minute consultation.

Only 1 in 10 organizations achieves what it set out to do, however inspiring and ambitious their plans may have sounded.

But you can vastly increase your chances of being part of that 10%

I'll explain the eight essential elements of any strategic plan.

Whether you're an seasoned executive or business owner, new to strategic planning, or just want to understand your organization better, you'll learn how to draft a practical checklist for reviewing your plans which you can apply right away.

The webinar includes a 30-minute presentation, followed by 15 minutes of answers to your questions. Sign up today and join us on Wednesday, November 2, at 11:30 am EDT.

We’ve all had the experience of feeling disappointments more keenly than similar moments of happiness, and it turns out this is part of human nature. A large study found that “the greater power of bad events over good ones is found in everyday life and major events, in close and distant and relationships . . . . there are hardly any exceptions . . . bad is stronger than good, as a general principle, across a broad range of psychological phenomena.”

Below, I’ve linked to an article from the Harvard Business Review showing that a bad hire reliably undermines the work of two outstanding employees. Likewise, as I discussed in an interview on the One Visit Away podcast (link below), bad strategy permeates an organization, crippling critical revenue-generating activities.

This seems discouraging, but it turns out to be good news for strategy development.

One of the myths of strategy is that it’s a rarefied activity for an elite with special training or unique insight. On the contrary, developing a good strategy is mainly a matter of choosing not to do things without a good reason.

Our reasons are usually not even close to being as good as we might hope. Nevertheless, if we can commit to testing our assumptions, we will have taken a big step toward a better strategy.

Charles Munger on Avoiding the Bad

It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.

Not a “Strategy Day” — a Strategy Sequence

Organizations often approach strategic planning in ways that guarantee aggravation and disappointment.

My new service, the Strategy Sequence, allows start-ups, non-profits, philanthropies, and established businesses to complete a board-approved strategy - ready for use with investors, donors, and other stakeholders - in as little as one month.

The sequence includes five 90-minute sessions with up to twelve members of your staff and board, three additional 90-minute consultations with your staff, and four guided assignments, including the drafting of a strategic plan for board approval.

To learn more, download the summary or schedule a free 15-minute consultation.

Toxic Employees > Superstars

The Harvard Business Review presents sobering research showing that “one toxic employee wipes out the gains of more than two superstars.”

• It’s Better to Avoid a Toxic Employee than Hire a Superstar

“The Successful Strategist” on the Strength of the Bad

• Bad Is Stronger Than Good (S1:E2)

• The People Question (S2:E15)

Fundraising Problems = Strategy Problems

I was very happy to be interivewed on the One Visit Away podcast on the effect of poor strategy on fundraising.

How can this be? Don’t we need consensus on our strategy if we want our colleagues to help us?

Unfortunately, consensus and agreement aren’t the same thing. Consensus is political, not strategic. It’s mainly concerned with avoiding conflict, not with making and acting on good decisions.

CartoonBank.com

Margaret Thatcher on Consensus

To me consensus seems to be . . . something in which no-one believes, but to which no-one objects, the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved . . . . What great cause would have been fought and won under the banner “I stand for consensus”?

Sir Robert Menzies Lecture, 1981

“The Successful Strategist” on Consensus

Organizations typically approach strategy development as a consensus-building activity rather than a decision-clarifying discussion.

In the first of these two podcast episodes, I focus on the necessity of disgreement, not just to make a good decision, but to make any decision at all.

In the second episode, I briefly describe four harmful forms of consensus, not all of which are obvious.

• Decisions Require Disagreement (S1:E7)

• The Threat of Consensus (S3:E1)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Consensus

There are many situations in which something that appears widely accepted is in fact believed or demanded only by a very committed few.

In this article, which is also a chapter in his book Skin in the Game, Taleb explores the social effect of an “instransigent minority.”

• The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority

Why Organizations Need a Strategy Audit

A large majority of strategic plans are produced by consensus, ensuring that they’re neither “strategic” nor even really “plans.”

My 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 is for those who want 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘁, 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘀.

A 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗔𝘂𝗱𝗶𝘁 will allow your organization – for-profit or non-profit – to candidly discuss and rapidly improve your strategic plan, vastly reducing your risk of wasted resources, internal conflict, damage to relationships with investors or donors, and unsustainable service to customers or beneficiaries.

Email me at muncy@prosperallc.com, or click on the image, for more information.